Outstation, Indian voters could sway Ayer Kuning poll outcome, says analyst (2025)

Sivamurugan Pandian of Universiti Sains Malaysia said BN benefits from the popularity of four-term Tapah MP M Saravanan and the legacy of the late assemblyman Ishsam Shahruddin.

However, key demographic and political undercurrents could still sway the outcome.

The 31,940 voters in Ayer Kuning comprise 55.97% Malay, 22.9% Chinese, 14.38% Indian and 7.5% Orang Asli voters.

“Looking at how actively Saravanan is campaigning, many Indian voters will still vote for BN, but some may stay home or support PSM candidate KS Bawani as a form of protest,” he told FMT.

He said that 46% of voters aged 18 to 39 work elsewhere in urban areas, a significant proportion whose return to vote remains uncertain. “The number is considered big. How many will return home to vote remains a question.”

He said the turnout for the 2022 general election was 74%, but by-elections usually draw a smaller crowd.

Ayer Kuning, a state seat in the Tapah parliamentary constituency, has been an Umno stronghold since 1986. Ishsam won the seat in a five-way fight with a 2,213-vote majority over Amanah’s Nazri Hashim in 2022.

BN is fielding Yusri Bakir, 54, the secretary of Umno’s Tapah division. A former teacher, he holds a PhD in Islamic education and heads the Islamic education centre at the teacher training institute in Ipoh.

MIC senator C Sivarajah also believes that voter turnout would be a problem. He said Saravanan’s popularity and Isham’s legacy alone would not guarantee a victory.

“The former assemblyman did well, and Saravanan has been speaking up on Hindu temples and issues affecting the local communities, but the turnout is the problem,” he said.

BN is expected to win in Ayer Kuning due to MIC and Saravanan, but Urimai chairman P Ramasamy said there may be protest votes which will benefit PSM. “Overall, the Indian community is upset. There’s no Tamil minister in Anwar Ibrahim’s cabinet, and the Jalan Masjid India temple issue hit a nerve,” he told FMT.

PN’s campaign misfires

Sivarajah, a former MIC vice-president, said Perikatan Nasional has struggled to connect with voters in Ayer Kuning. “PN’s campaigning here has not been effective because their issues are not really relevant here,” he said.

Sivamurugan said PN candidate Abd Muhaimin Malek’s campaign, especially his focus on shutting down illegal pig farms, may have alienated non-Malay voters.

The issue of pig farms has become a central campaign point for PN, with concerns raised over their presence in a predominantly Malay area.

PAS claims Sungai Bidor was polluted by a pig farm, but the Perak state government insists all 85 farms are licensed and denies widespread illegal activity.

Sivamurugan said PN’s aim was to woo Malay voters, but their campaign would “push non-Malay voters to BN and PSM, who see it as an attempt not to focus on other issues”.

He said PAS may try to attract protest votes from BN supporters who are upset with BN for cooperating with DAP, but this matter may not drastically increase their support.